Ideology and Partisanship: The Republicans

Before we move on to the current state of affairs, it is useful for us to take a parting glance at how the major coalition parties appeared to define themselves at their respective national conventions.   These events are intended first of all to choose nominees for elective offices, both in government and in the party's permanent organization.  However, they also serve as a touchstone for how those who identify with a particular political party understand their own positions, and how articulating those positions may expand the party's electoral base.  As a result, political parties' national conventions are typically followed by mail-in solicitation drives, seeking to recruit new members to the party, and to raise additional fund to the party'e campaign "war-chest."

Last year, thanks in part to the cross-tabulation of marketing research data with past partisan voter registration (this might not have been possible without Karl Rove having gained access to Texas voter registration rolls), the Republican National Committee was particularly aggressive, able to focus their mail-in solicitation drive on those whom they believed were likely to support their party.

In many cases they hit their mark.  In some cases they missed.  Suffice it to say, the solicitation letter we received in the mail was an eye-opener, especially once I submitted it to the LEO test.

The letter came in two parts:  One was a three-page solicitation to join the party, phrased in a manner that assumed the addressee was already so inclined.  The second part was a "Voter Platform Survey" containing 13 questions clearly designed to produce a halo effect.   While my wife initially tore up the letter and the questionnaire (she is not a member of any political party) I retrieved the pieces and submitted them to the same scrutiny as the previous case studies.

The solicitation letter contained 28 total ideological indicators: 6 for Liberty, 5 for Equality, and 17 for Order.  Now, while the total rhetorical volume was fairly low, almost 61% of the ideological indicators came up under the establishmentarian column.  Perhaps the RNC believed they were preaching to the choir, but 61% (actually 60.71%) suggests not a mere preference, but a hard-line position.

The "Voter Platform Survey" yielded similar results: 26 total ideological indicators, this time 7 for Liberty, 4 for Equality, and 15 for Order.  While 15 is only about 58% of the total, a preference for Order is clearly indicated.

So how did this solicitation compare with the other part of the Republican Party's membership drive, the televised national convention?  I chose four speakers to compare with this 'beg letter':  First Lady Laura Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger,  and a Guest Speaker, Senator Zell Miller from Georgia.  Here are the results (Click to enlarge):
Raw Scores

In terms of rhetorical volume, Dick Cheney, despite his soft-spoken address, was clearly the loudest ideological voice at the Convention (33 liberty, 44 equality, 75 order).  By contrast the solicitation and the questionnaire were far quieter, but this was to be expected.  Conventions last for days and then are over. Moreover they are public events accessible to most only through mass media.  Correspondence, on the other hand, is received at home in a private venue, speaks directly to the recipient, and is more lasting, unless of course the recipient discards the letter.  But what of their percentages?  See below:

Percentages

Here we find the RNC 'beg letter' and the questionnaire are ideologically more thoroughly concerned with Order than either Laura Bush or Dick Cheney.  One may also note that Laura Bush's speech, although quieter than Cheney's (her raw score: 15 liberty, 25 equality, 40 order)  is consistent with Cheney's, and they nearly match the ideological signature of the president's reelection campaign.  Interestingly, Zell Miller's speech more closely resembled the ideological preference of the mail-in solicitations than any of the other guest speakers. (Miller's raw score: 30 liberty, 13 equality, 53 order)

The most curious results came from an examination of Governor Schwarzenegger's "You Are a Republican" address.   Although better known and derided by some as the "economic girlie men" speech, Schwarzenegger's convention address is particularly interesting in its divergence from the ideological 'party line' established by the 2004 presidential campaign as well as by all the other principal speakers at the Republican National Convention.  Unlike the other manifestly conservative addresses at the convention, this speech yielded a libertarian score,  with 32 references to Liberty, 21 references to Equality, and 27 references to Order.  Based on this speech alone, it appeared that Schwarzenegger  had more in common with Michael Badnarik than with George W. Bush.  Even so, Scwarzeneggar's speech alone would not steer the overall conservative ideological preference expressed by Republicans on the Convention floor, as shown by the averages above (minus Zell Miller, himself a decidedly conservative Democrat).

Perhaps the way Schwarzenegger's speech was received served as a wake-up call for the Republican leadership, and this affected Bush's decision to increase the amount of manifestly libertarian rhetoric in his own public speeches, beginning with the end of his acceptance speech at the Convention, carried further (perhaps too far for conservative Republicans) in his second Inaugural Address, and upon hearing objections from the conservative leadership in the party, moderated somewhat in the State of the Union Address.

This leads me to wonder:  where does Mr. Bush stand now?  In the next article, let's find out.

Comments

[Anna]

Suspense, suspense...:-) I keep reading, even though I cannot comment much.

[jonathon]

Any why can you not comment much?

[Kevin]

Never mind the serious stuff..the image of Rufel responding to a RNC flyer had me sputter decaf all over my monitor... I'm imagining the little bouncing babbling thing she does in my class when she get really frustrated...